According to the blue-green algal prognosis for this summer, made by the Marine Research Centre of the Finnish Environment Institute, the risk of blue-green algal blooms is considerable in the Archipelago Sea and in the Gulf of Finland.
The press release was published in Finnish 6/1/2009
According to the blue-green algal prognosis for this summer, made by the Marine Research Centre of the Finnish Environment Institute, the risk of blue-green algal blooms is considerable in the Archipelago Sea and in the Gulf of Finland. In the Gulf of Bothnia the risk is moderate. In the southern parts of Baltic proper the risk of blooms is substantial or even high. The most abundant blooms are expected to occur in the southern parts of the Baltic Sea.
This summer the probability of blue-green algal blooms in the Finnish sea areas is somewhat higher than last year, at least in the Archipelago Sea. The seawater phosphorus concentrations are not as high as during the worst blue-green algal bloom years of this decade.
The summer weather is the decisive factor that determines the occurrence of major blooms. The bloom period is expected to peak in late July. If the weather during the early summer is warm and calm, extensive blooms may occur earlier. After mid August the blue-green algal situation depends on the development of the nutrient situation during the summer, and deviations from the prognosis are more likely.
The prognosis describes the probability of the occurrence of blue-green algal blooms in average weather conditions. In case of a warm summer the algal aggregations may be more abundant and occur even in areas not indicated in the map. If the weather is calm, blue-green algae will form surface accumulations that may drift ashore with currents. If the summer is cold and windy, the blue-green algae will remain mixed in the water, and visible blooms will be few.
The blue-green algal bloom prognosis is based on probability estimates made by means of ecosystem models. The starting points of the models are the nutrient situation of last winter and the models take into account the changes in nutrient concentrations during the spring. The algal prognosis describes the probability of blooms of nitrogen-binding blue-green algae that form surface aggregations, under average weather and current conditions.
Reviews on the algal situation will be published in Finnish and Swedish each Thursday during the summer months, from 4 June to the end of August.
The algal bloom maps in the Baltic Sea Portal will be updated daily. The Baltic Sea Portal also shows the continuously updated three-day blue-green algal forecasts of the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
